Partly Out of Focus With a Chance of Unpredictability

Introduction:

Systems, both natural and artificial, are complex. And no matter how well constructed our mathematics and concept maps are, an element of unpredictability lies within every complex system. So, like weather prediction, analyzing social systems to predict how they will behave on any given day results in a picture that is just a little out of focus. Consider the so-called "Black Swan" - the emergence of some unanticipated change that disrupts the status quo—dealing with the unanticipated means that there is a degree of ambiguity. This ambiguity leaves room for much interpretation. When this occurs, people develop different narratives to explain why things are how they are and what should be done in response. And sometimes, these narratives are at odds. This kind of opposition can create stormy weather. And those opposing fronts, like thunder over your roof, can shake things up. Although these storms are not controllable, there is a way to use the prevailing winds to navigate your proverbial ship through that storm.

Our Speaker:

Amanda Borosh, a 3rd-year Ph.D. candidate at Purdue and former Special Education advisor in the Chicago school system, put on her sailor's cap and shared some of her best strategies, exemplified by her current research and work in a large midwest grade school. Although her task is to implement research-based strategies for supporting improved behavioral and learning outcomes in a large school, her experience yielded insights germane to the corporate "seas" as well.

One of the best "sailing" tips she shared can be viewed in a video. ( St. Martins, 2020). The idea explains that when we navigate a problem in social systems, we frequently assume that the gap analysis is additive. Indeed, we are taught that the desired outcome minus the current condition equals the gap. And then we believe that filling in that gap will fix the problem. But what if it isn't that simple? What if the complexities of the systems we create and operate work more like a multiplication problem?

Take Away:

In such a case, we may accurately define a gap in the system, and perhaps we even succeed in getting this gap up to snuff. But what if another unseen or out-of-focus factor in the system may also be required for the impact to be effectively made? In such a case, addition and subtraction properties might give us a fuzzy picture of the situation at best.

Alternatively, using multiplication as an analogy might bring things into a bit more focus (St. Martin, 2020). No matter what numbers are multiplied or how many are multiplied, if there is one zero in the sequence, zero is the outcome. Now, suppose that there is a problem that comes into focus in a complex system. An example could be a business, school, or organization. We can look at that system and correctly identify gaps and solutions.

With addition and subtraction as our model for understanding this system, we might evaluate the outcome of our solution and determine whether it was successful. For example, 5 + 0 = 5. And if we can train our learners to work more efficiently, we can get that zero up to a higher number. Even improving a little bit would show that the effort was effective. We can see this by adding 5 + 1, which gives us 6. Under this model, we could see the direct results of our training efforts quickly and clearly.

However, what if it was only one problem in a long string of issues? Assume a number represents each issue, and the system more closely reflects multiplication. That is to say, even one zero in a string of multiplied numbers will cause the system to crash. Changing one zero to a positive whole number other than zero might work if that is the only gap. However, if there are other zeros in the string of numbers, the outcome will still be zero. Consider the following equation:

5 x 1 x 0 x 2 x 0 x 2 = 0

Let's spend some time with that first zero in the sequence. Let's assume that each number represents the ability of the workforce to complete some vital step in a sequence. And let's assume that the first zero represents our would-be learners' understanding of how spreadsheets work and why they are essential. Imagine we used a PowerPoint and gave our learners a paper pamphlet to help them remember the main points, and they took a paper test to show they understood the presentation. Every student earned 5 out of 5 points on the test for a solid 100%. Let's re-examine the equation now.

5 x 1 x 5 x 2 x 0 x 2 = 0

Nothing. After all that hard work, we still failed to make progress. Let's assume that the second zero in the combination indicates that our leaders do not know how to operate a computer. They are fantastic with paper and pen spreadsheets and understand their importance. But, the unspoken assumption is that the learners can use spreadsheets on a computer. Without addressing this previously unacknowledged number in the equation, it doesn't matter how fantastic the training is; it was only one factor in a long, complex system. So, placing too much weight on a single factor without addressing the whole equation gets us nowhere. We need to zoom out and search for those hidden zeros in the equation and bring them into focus to address them.

This mathematical analogy underscores the idea that even if training is necessary to increase systemic functionality and human performance, it may not be sufficient ( Stolovitch & Keeps, 2004). Like the field of Instructional Design (ID), Human Performance Technology (HPT) comes with many definitions ( O'Driscoll, 2015). However, neither ID nor HPT can survive on an island. As such, the intermingling of ID and HPT may not be coincidental. Both fields are part of the same, more extensive system.

Reflection:

The weather we find ourselves in sometimes obscures our vision with clouds or temporarily allows us to see to the end of several miles with clear skies. However, viewing the problem through a systems lens allows us to turn to a sharper aperture. And that can bring clarity to the scene, no matter how the ID and HPT roles we find ourselves in are defined.

Resources

Borosh, Amanda (2022) Using Implementation Science and Organizational Behavior

Management to Support the Adoption, Implementation, and Sustainability of

Evidence-based Practices in K-12 Education. Purdue University

Brown, Marcy L. (2007). Analyzing Performance: Training Isn't Always the Answer. Journal

of Hospital Librarianship, 8. https://doi.org/10.1080/15323260801931989

Gharajedaghi, J. (2011). Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity: A Platform for

Designing Business Architecture. Netherlands: Elsevier Science.

O'Driscoll, T. (2015, July 14). Chronicling the Emergence of Human Performance Technology. Online library-Wiley-com. https://onlinelibrary-wiley-

com.ezproxy.lib.purdue.edu/doi/full/10.1002/pfi.21491

St. Martin, K. (2020) Voices from the Field: Integrated and Compensatory 1. Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQvmx1vvYJw

Stolovitch, H; Keeps, E. (2004). Training Ain't Performance, ATD Press Alexandra, VA.